Korean War active phase
1,129 daysWar context
Duration, attrition, and mechanical projections
This page compares the full-scale war against selected modern wars, then shows what current attrition and territorial tempo imply when projected mechanically.
Russian personnel losses 1,411,050
Ukraine linearized casualties 643,412
Combined context total 2,054,462
Duration
How long this full-scale war has lasted
The Russia–Ukraine full-scale war is shown against selected modern conflicts. World War II is intentionally not included here because it was a global war, not a comparable single-theater country-vs-country conflict.
Casualty tempo
Deaths, wounded, and personnel-loss context
These rows are deliberately labeled by source type. They are useful for scale and tempo, not exact one-to-one equivalence.
Russia–Ukraine combined set
Total casualty/death context
Attrition per day comparison
Casualty assumptions
The Russian personnel figure uses the Ukrainian official estimate stored in this site. The Ukrainian military casualty row linearly extends a public Zelenskyy baseline of 45,000 killed and 390,000 wounded from 04 Feb 2025. The combined row adds those two labelled layers together. Other selected-war rows use broad order-of-magnitude context and should not be treated as equivalent definitions.
Hardware attrition
Current Russian equipment attrition per day
Thirty-day average is shown because it is less noisy than yesterday and more current than the full-war average.
Personnelsince-start avg: 886/day
1,291/dayTankssince-start avg: 7.59/day
3.37/dayAFVssince-start avg: 16/day
6.47/dayArtillerysince-start avg: 29/day
69/dayVehiclessince-start avg: 73/day
427/dayUAVssince-start avg: 247/day
2,032/dayAir defensesince-start avg: 0.92/day
2.20/dayTerritory-cost projection
What current territorial tempo would imply
Two mechanical blocks: all Ukraine and the remaining Donbas objective. The cost rows multiply the projected time by current 30-day Russian attrition pace.
Projection A
If Russia tried to occupy all Ukraine at this pace
465 years486,774.9 km² / 187,944.7 sq mi at 2.87 km²/day
Using Russian net gain pace from Russia Matters / DeepState over the latest 4 weekly entries.
219,211,388personnel losses571,511tanks1,097,754AFVs11,730,129artillery72,463,114vehicles344,977,838UAVs
Mechanical projection only; not a forecast.
Projection B
If Russia tried to take the remaining Donbas at this pace
6.3 years6,600.0 km² / 2,548.3 sq mi at 2.87 km²/day
Using Russian net gain pace from Russia Matters / DeepState over the latest 4 weekly entries.
2,972,206personnel losses7,749tanks14,884AFVs159,044artillery982,500vehicles4,677,426UAVs
Mechanical projection only; not a forecast.
Projection assumptions: Ukraine total area 603,700.0 km² / 233,089.7 sq mi; Donbas total area 53,217.0 km² / 20,547.2 sq mi; remaining Donbas objective 6,600.0 km² / 2,548.3 sq mi. Donbas remaining is a working assumption for the remaining Ukrainian-held Donetsk/Luhansk area; make editable once a preferred territorial dataset is selected.
Alternate source check: Russia Matters / ISW shows 28.5 km² / 11.0 sq mi net over 28 days, or 1.02 km²/day.
Read this first
Not a forecast
These projections are intentionally mechanical. They show what the current tempo would imply if it continued unchanged. Wars do not continue unchanged.
Why it matters
Territory vs attrition
The projection makes the trade-off visible: small territorial changes can imply enormous losses when current attrition is multiplied over time.
Next refinement
Editable assumptions
A later admin screen can expose Ukraine area, Donbas remaining area, source preference, and casualty baselines as editable settings.